End of year trend predictions are usually exercises in wishful thinking. I’m going to try to be more honest. Here’s what I actually think will shape how Australians eat, cook, and think about food in 2026.

1. AI menu planning goes mainstream

Not just for restaurants. Consumer-facing apps that plan your weekly meals based on what’s on special, what’s in season, and your dietary preferences are getting genuinely good. Several Australian startups are working on this, and the big supermarkets are integrating similar features into their apps.

This has real potential to reduce food waste at the household level. Companies like AI consultants in Adelaide are already working with food service businesses on these demand prediction tools, and the consumer versions are catching up fast. I’m cautiously optimistic.

2. Native ingredients get serious shelf space

Beyond the fine dining garnish. Companies like Kakadu Plum Co and Australian Native Foods are scaling production of bush tomato, wattleseed, lemon myrtle, and pepperberry for retail. Expect to see these in supermarket spice aisles, not just specialty stores.

This needs to happen with proper Indigenous involvement and benefit-sharing. Some companies are getting this right. Others are not.

3. The plant-based market correction continues

The hype peaked in 2022-2023. Now we’re in the correction. Some plant-based brands have already exited the Australian market. The ones that survive will be the ones that are actually good, not just novel. Expect fewer fake steaks and more products that celebrate plants as plants — not as imitations of meat.

4. Fermentation becomes normal

Kimchi is already mainstream. In 2026, I think we’ll see broader fermentation — miso, tepache, preserved lemons, lacto-fermented hot sauces — become standard pantry items for engaged home cooks. The gut health conversation is driving this, but the flavour is what keeps people coming back.

5. Food delivery consolidation

The delivery app wars are ending through consolidation and business failures. Fewer options, potentially higher fees. This might actually push people back to cooking at home or picking up directly, which wouldn’t be the worst outcome for either wallets or food quality.

6. Regional food tourism grows

Post-pandemic, Australians rediscovered their own backyard. Food tourism in places like the Yarra Valley, Barossa, Northern Rivers, and Margaret River is growing fast. The new development is smaller, less-known regions getting in on it — think the Granite Belt in Queensland, the Huon Valley in Tasmania, and the Riverland in SA.

7. Carbon labelling appears on food packaging

The EU is moving towards mandatory carbon labelling. Australia won’t be far behind. Some Australian food companies are already voluntarily including carbon footprint data on their packaging. By the end of 2026, I expect this to be common enough that consumers start paying attention.

8. Cooking from scratch rebounds

Call it the post-convenience backlash. I’m seeing it in my inbox, in social media trends, and in bookshop sales data. People are tired of expensive meal kits and mediocre takeaway. There’s a genuine movement back towards basic cooking skills, especially among under-30s who missed out on home economics in school.

9. Water becomes a food story

The Bureau of Meteorology’s forecasts for 2026 suggest a drier than average year across much of eastern Australia. Water allocation issues will directly affect what food gets grown and at what price. Rice, cotton, and irrigated vegetables in the Murray-Darling Basin are particularly exposed. This isn’t a trend I’m excited about, but it’s one we need to pay attention to.

10. Restaurant prices keep climbing

I don’t see how they don’t. Labour costs are up. Ingredient costs are up. Energy costs are up. The restaurants that survive will be the ones that justify their prices through quality and experience, not the ones trying to compete on volume. For diners, this means eating out less often but eating better when you do.

The one I hope I’m wrong about

I worry that the gap between food haves and have-nots in Australia will widen in 2026. Food insecurity is already rising, food banks are under pressure, and the cost of a basic healthy diet keeps climbing. The trends above — AI meal planning, native ingredients, carbon labelling — are great for people with choices. But a lot of Australians are just trying to get dinner on the table.

That’s the trend I’ll be watching most closely.